The Mavericks are hiring Dusty May from Michigan University to be their next head coach. He is the first coach since John Beilein in 2019 to make the leap, who resigned in February of 2020 after winning just 14 of his 54 games. Beilein, much like May, coached at Michigan and had a winning percentage north of 60 percent in his college career, making both established winners before their NBA tenure. While Beilein quickly flamed out in the big leagues, the Mavericks hope May follows a different path.
To find a different outcome, the Mavericks are going to have to fight history. Of the last 12 college coaches to get hired by an NBA team, only two had winning records. Billy Donovan is the lone survivor still coaching from this group, and has a very respectable career record of 469-413 (53.2 percent). Brad Stevens is the other great hire over the last 30-plus years, who went 354-282 over his eight seasons in Boston before famously making the transition to General Manager, where he has excelled since. Stevens is surely the guy that Dallas had in mind when making this decision, but the rest of the group gives enough pause to be cautious when setting expectations for the defending National Champion’s success at the next level.
Of the ten “duds”, three won over 100 games in the NBA and five won under 70. Two were fired early in their third season, and four lasted two or fewer. The flame-outs were quick and obvious, and given that all six guys hired between 1994 and 2000 had losing records, there was good reason just six more coaches were hired in the same fashion over the next 26 years.
What none of those guys did, however, was win a national title the year they left college. May is coming off a fantastic year that ended with nets being cut and the culmination of his meteoric rise to prominence. The closest any of the guys over the last 32 years (the full list is here) came to doing that was Rick Pitino in 1997, when he lost the National Championship game and then accepted a job to coach the Celtics. He did not win more than 36 games in any of the next four seasons as Boston’s head coach.
While history may not be on May’s side, he certainly has the resume to believe that he is closer to Brad Stevens than John Beilein. He has won everywhere he has coached; he hovered above .500 for four seasons at Florida Atlantic (FAU) and then exploded for 124 wins in 150 games over his next four at FAU and Michigan. That run included two Final Fours, two conference championships, and one National Title. He is a proven winner and is an exciting hire for Dallas. But he will have to overcome the hurdles that present themselves when transitioning from a college locker room to one with grown men. It’s okay to be happy that the Mavericks think they have their guy, but be aware that there are real and repeated failures with previous poachings of college coaches.
