If anyone thinks the Washington Wizards 2026 draft is now reduced to offloading picks 51 and 60, I have four words: I sure hope not.
The Wizards got the draft started by making the high-scoring, hyper-athletic AJ Dybantsa the No. 1 overall pick. That’s fine work. And there’s no reason to stop.
As Greg Finberg wrote this morning, potentially good players are still available. According to YODA (my stat-based draft analysis tool) top remaining prospects not selected in the first round include:
- Trevon Brazile | F | Arkansas
- Meleek Thomas | G | Arkansas
- Richie Saunders | G | BYU
- Isaiah Evans | W | Duke
- Izaiyah Nelson | C | South Florida
- Ugonna Onyenso | C | Virginia
- Tamin Lipsey | G | Iowa State
At this stage of the rebuild, the Wizards would be wise to be aggressive in acquiring additional talent. I understand concerns about players potentially blocking each other from playing time and of the possibility of creating headaches for the coach. I’m not persuaded, though.
To me, one lesson of nearly 50 years of watching and analyzing NBA basketball is that there’s no such thing as “too much” talent. As former Wizards executive Tommy Sheppard once said about finding good players, “We’re all robbing the same train.”
The current Wizards roster has theoretical depth. If young guys develop as hoped, they could end up with a logjam.
But when it comes to theoretical depth and player development, there’s an important thought to keep in mind: You never know.
As in, you never know when someone you’re counting on to play major minutes is going to land awkwardly and take an odd step and end up missing 30 games.
While you may believe in the ability of young players to improve, history says some of them won’t — or won’t improve as much as you’d like. Some might even get worse. It happens. We talk about career arcs and improvement trajectories, but those are averages across hundreds or even thousands of players. The thing about averages is there are outliers on all sides. Maybe you get lucky and an afterthought becomes a star. Or maybe you get unlucky and someone you thought would be a star becomes average or worse.
Back to the Wizards roster for a moment, they have two guys who could truly be considered proven — Anthony Davis and Trae Young. When healthy, Davis was among the best big men in the game, especially on defense. Young has more warts, but at worst has been pretty good the past few years. Both have some durability concerns, but assuming reasonable luck with health, it’s reasonable to think they’ll be good.
I’d consider Alex Sarr proven. He was terrific last season for a second-year player. Even if he doesn’t improve a bit, he could still be a good starter on a team trying to win.
After that, I get the arguments in favor of Kyshawn George, but he’s at a point where his career could go in a lot of different directions. He has plenty of strengths. He also makes a ton of mistakes — some of which (turnovers and excessive fouling) make him unreliable in high-pressure situations.
Bilal Coulibaly might be a starter or valued reserve. He might also remain so limited on the offensive end that he’s relegated to a defensive specialist role.
Tre Johnson showed promise as a shooter, but he also needs to improve his skills, conditioning, strength, defense, and all-around awareness.
Bub Carrington shot well, but struggled to handle the ball against pressure, played smaller than his measured height, and struggled to get by any but the weakest defenders.
Will Riley flashed potential, but deeper analysis of his last-season surge indicated there was less there than met the eye.
The point is not to trash these guys — none of them are bad players. Any of them could possibly become All-Stars or better if they put in the work and get lucky. But any of them could also get hurt, regress, focus offseason work time on the wrong things, or get derailed by personal issues.
Since none of the youngsters — except perhaps Dybantsa and Sarr — could be considered “sure things,” (and Dybantsa hasn’t stepped on an NBA floor yet), the Wizards front office should continue bringing in talented youngsters who can create some competition for minutes and roles.
Worst case, some talented players might get out-competed for a role and be relegated to the bench. At least until someone ahead of him gets hurt or doesn’t perform as hoped. Over a long NBA season, teams need guys who are chomping at the bit for minutes and are working for playing time. They need guys who stay ready for when their chance comes.
And, if there’s a problem at some point that the team has “too many” good players (a challenge the Wizards have never faced and probably never will), someone can be traded.
In other words, Will Dawkins should see if there’s a way to trade up to add someone like Brazile or Thomas or another youngster who just might have a chance to be a good NBA player. They’re going to need guys like that. Probably sooner than they think.
