UFC Baku: Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres continues on the prelims with a fight between Kaan Ofli and Javier Reyes in the featherweight division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Ofli-Reyes prediction and pick.
Kaan Ofli (14-4-1) has been building momentum in the UFC featherweight division. He submitted Ricardo Ramos with a standing rear naked choke in round one in October 2025, then followed it up with a majority decision win over Yizha at UFC 325 in January 2026, back-to-back wins that have him riding a two-fight streak as he comes into his fight this weekend against Javier Reyes.
Javier Reyes (23-5) has been on a serious tear of late. He earned a UFC contract by knocking out Justice Torres with punches and knees at just 2:32 in round one at Dana White’s Contender Series in September 2025, then made his UFC debut an instant statement, stopping veteran Douglas Silva de Andrade via TKO punches at 4:59 of round one in February 2026. Two fights, two first-round finishes, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Kaan Ofli.
UFC Baku Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Baku Odds: Kaan Ofli-Javier Reyes Odds
Kaan Ofli: +145
Javier Reyes: -175
Over 2.5 rounds: -120
Under 2.5 rounds: -110
Why Kaan Ofli Will Win
Kaan “Genghis” Ofli is one of the most dangerous submission artists in the entire UFC featherweight division. With seven career submission wins — including guillotines, rear naked chokes, and bulldog chokes, he has more ways to finish a fight on the ground than almost anyone at 145 pounds.
Javier Reyes arrives with momentum, but his wrestling has been flagged as a genuine liability. Analysts have noted that his takedown setups are telegraphed and his defensive positioning on the feet leaves him vulnerable, exactly the kind of flaws a technically polished operator like Ofli will exploit.
Ofli’s 54% striking defense is elite, meaning he doesn’t just brawl, he fights smart, picking his spots while neutralizing offensive threats. When Reyes inevitably pushes forward and looks for the clinch, he’ll be walking directly into Ofli’s world, where the Australian finisher is most dangerous.
Reyes has shown poor chin positioning when retreating, and Ofli’s ability to land sharp combinations and transition immediately to grappling makes him a nightmare matchup for that style. Six first-round finishes on his record prove Ofli wastes no time once he smells blood.
At 14-4-1 with a two-fight win streak and a game plan tailor-made for this matchup, Ofli has every tool necessary to grind out a finish and hand Reyes his first UFC loss.
Why Javier Reyes Will Win
Javier “Blair” Reyes is a certified finishing machine, and his numbers back it up. With 11 knockout wins and 8 submission victories in 23 career wins, including nine first-round finishes, he brings a level of danger in every single second of every round.
Kaan Ofli has been knocked out cold before, most notably getting stopped by Mairon Santos in round two in August 2024, exposing a chin that can be cracked under the right circumstances. Reyes doesn’t need much, his striking output at 8.91 significant strikes per minute is relentless, and a fighter who has been stopped by punches once can absolutely be stopped again.
Ofli started his UFC career 0-2, and while he’s bounced back, his own admission reveals that mental hesitancy has plagued him in high-pressure moments. Reyes is exactly the kind of aggressive, forward-moving finisher who will exploit that hesitancy and make Ofli second-guess himself at the worst possible time.
Reyes’s UFC debut TKO over veteran Douglas Silva de Andrade proved he belongs at this level and can deliver under the bright lights. His combination of volume striking and opportunistic grappling, eight submission wins prove he’s no one-trick pony, gives him multiple paths to a finish.
At 23-5 with two consecutive UFC-quality stoppages, Reyes has the momentum, the finishing instinct, and the firepower to make Ofli’s night a very short one.
Final Kaan Ofli-Javier Reyes Prediction & Pick
This featherweight matchup is a fascinating clash of styles, a battle-tested submission specialist against a relentless finishing machine making his first UFC main card appearance. The key question is whether Reyes’s explosive striking can keep Ofli from getting comfortable and doing what he does best.
Reyes will likely come out fast, throwing high volume and looking for the early finish the way he always does. But Ofli has shown the experience and composure to survive early storms, and once the pace settles, his technical grappling becomes the great equalizer.
Ofli’s 54% striking defense and seven career submission wins suggest he’s built for longer, grinding fights where patience pays off. Reyes, meanwhile, hasn’t been tested in deep waters at this level, and if this fight reaches the second half, Ofli’s experience edge becomes overwhelming.
Expect Ofli to absorb early pressure, time a takedown, and work a submission finish in the championship rounds.
Final Kaan Ofli-Javier Reyes Prediction & Pick: Kaan Ofli (+145), Over 2.5 rounds (-120)
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