UFC Baku: Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres continues on the prelims with a fight between Julius Walker and Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev in the light heavyweight division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Walker-Yakhyaev prediction and pick.
Julius Walker (7-2) has had a rollercoaster run in the UFC. He ground out a grinding unanimous decision over Rafael Cerqueira in August 2025 to get back in the win column, then stepped up against Dustin Jacoby and was stopped by TKO punches at just 1:42 of round two in February 2026, a tough loss that raises questions about his durability under fire as he comes into his fight this weekend against Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev.
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (9-0) is one of the most terrifying prospects in the entire light heavyweight division. He choked out Rafael Cerqueira with a rear naked choke in just 33 seconds in November 2025, then submitted Brendson Ribeiro in round one at April’s UFC Fight Night to make it 2-0 in the Octagon, all business, zero drama, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Julius Walker.
UFC Baku Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Baku Odds: Julius Walker-Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev Odds
Julius Walker: +455
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev: -625
Over 1.5 rounds: +170
Under 1.5 rounds: -220
Why Julius Walker Will Win
Julius “Juice Box” Walker is a legitimate wildcard in this matchup, and the athletic tools he brings to the cage should not be dismissed. Standing 6’4″ with a long reach and a Brazilian jiu-jitsu foundation built on top of sharp cage wrestling, Walker has a skill set that could expose the gaps in Yakhyaev’s still-developing résumé.
Every single one of Yakhyaev’s nine wins has come against lower-level competition, and analysts have specifically flagged that his dominance raises questions about how he handles fighters who don’t fold immediately. Walker is the first man he’s faced in the UFC who has legitimate grappling credentials and the athleticism to match him on the mat.
Walker’s scrambling ability is elite, he uses double underhooks, kimura entries, and level changes to create chaos in exchanges, turning bad positions into offensive opportunities. Yakhyaev has looked flawless against overmatched opponents, but a fighter who can scramble and reverse positions presents a completely different problem.
Walker also carries four KO wins on his record, meaning he has real finishing power if Yakhyaev gets sloppy on the feet. At 26 years old and entering the prime of his athletic career, Walker has every reason to believe this is the upset that puts him on the map.
Why Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev Will Win
Abdul Rakhman “The Hunter” Yakhyaev is one of the most statistically dominant grapplers in the UFC right now, and his numbers are genuinely staggering. A 75% takedown accuracy, 100% takedown defense, and a submission average of 8.78 per 15 minutes — he doesn’t just threaten on the mat, he suffocates opponents there.
His UFC debut set the fastest submission in modern light heavyweight history at 33 seconds, and he followed it up with another round-one rear naked choke finish against Brendson Ribeiro. Two UFC fights, two first-round submissions — the pattern is as clear as it is terrifying.
Walker has already been finished twice in his UFC run, dropping a TKO loss to Dustin Jacoby and a split decision to Alonzo Menifield, raising real questions about his ability to handle elite-level pressure. Yakhyaev is the best opponent Walker has ever faced, and the step-up in competition couldn’t be more significant.
The Hunter’s freestyle wrestling background gives him elite level-change timing that neutralizes even the most athletic opponents. Once Yakhyaev gets Walker to the canvas, and history says he will, Walker’s submission defense will be tested in ways it never has been before.
At just 25 years old, undefeated at 9-0, and operating with the kind of calculated precision that suggests his best MMA is still ahead of him, Yakhyaev looks every bit like a future title contender.
Final Julius Walker-Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev Prediction & Pick
This light heavyweight matchup has all the makings of a short, violent night, and the evidence points overwhelmingly in one direction. Yakhyaev’s grappling is on a different level than anything Walker has encountered in his young career, and Walker’s two UFC losses have already exposed a tendency to wilt under sustained pressure.
Walker’s athleticism and scrambling ability are real, and if he can keep the fight standing and land one of his four KO-caliber shots early, the upset is absolutely possible. But Yakhyaev’s 100% takedown defense and elite level-change timing make it extremely difficult for opponents to dictate where the fight takes place.
Once Yakhyaev gets his hands on Walker and drags him to the canvas, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu foundation that Walker leans on may not be nearly enough to survive. Every single pattern in Yakhyaev’s career points to a first-round finish.
The Hunter has looked flawless through nine fights, and nothing about Walker’s profile suggests he’s the man to hand him his first loss.
Final Julius Walker-Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev Prediction & Pick: Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (-625), Under 1.5 rounds (-220)
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