We’re back with another prediction and pick inside UFC Fight Night from Baku as we turn attention towards this competitive bout in the Middleweight (185) Division. Uzbekistan’s Nursulton Ruziboev will take on Russia’s Andrey Pulyaev in an all-out scrap. Check our UFC odds series for the Ruziboev-Pulyaev prediction and pick.
Nursulton Ruziboev (36-9-2) comes into this bout with a 4-1 UFC record since 2023. He comes in off back-to-back wins with a KO over Eric McConico and a recent unanimous decision over Dustin Stoltzfus, making yet another appearance as the significant betting favorite. He’ll look to continue raising his stock standing 6-foot-5 with a 76-inch reach.
Andrey Pulyaev (10-4) makes his fourth UFC appearance with a 1-2 record since 2025. With a TKO-win against Nick Klein on his resume, Pulyaev’s two losses came against Christian Leroy Duncan and Ateba Gautier which have aged well in the time since. Still, he’ll be in a redemption spot here as the underdog once again. Pulyaev stands 6-foot-4 with a 78.5-inch reach.
UFC Baku Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Baku Odds: Nursulton Ruziboev-Andrey Pulyaev Odds
Nursulton Ruziboev: -230
Andrey Pulyaev: +190
Over 1.5 rounds: -210
Under 1.5 rounds: +160
Why Nursulton Ruziboev Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Dustin Stoltzfus – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 13 KO/TKO, 20 SUB
Nursulton Ruziboev turned in yet another dominant performance his last time out against Dustin Stoltzfus, stringing together consecutive victories since his last loss to Joaquin Buckley. Ruziboev has clearly made adjustments to his striking and he’s offering different looks to various opponents each time he’s out there. He’ll have another dangerous obstacle in Pulyaev, but Ruziboev has settled into a groove and seems extremely confident in his striking.
Ruziboev’s cardio was a question early into his tenure, but his last win over Dustin Stoltzfus, who was pushing a high pace for 15 minutes, suggests he’s been able to dial-in that part of his game. With Pulyaev offering a similar frame to strike against, don’t be surprised if Ruziboev begins to look for the clinch so he can land his knees up the middle. He’ll also be chopping the lead leg from the start as he’s learned the importance of getting started early from previous fights.
All in all, Ruziboev has all the same skills Pulyaev possesses at a slightly higher proficiency. He’s lethal on the ground with 20 career submissions, but he’s still searching for his first inside the UFC. Much has been said of his “padded” record, but Ruziboev is proving his worth as a consistent winner early on.
Why Andrey Pulyaev Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Ateba Gautier – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 6 KO/TKO, 2 SUB
Andrey Pulyaev came into his UFC debut as a +340 underdog against Christian Leroy Duncan and was able to push him to a full three rounds. After beating Nick Klein with near-even odds, Pulyaev fell in his last fight to Ateba Gautier as a +650 still pushing Gautier to the final horn. His losses have been impressive against much more skilled opponents, so Pulyaev should out-perform many expectations as the underdog once again.
Pulyaev is very consistent with his striking and finds a home in his right hand. He throws a simple 1-2 jab-straight combo, but it’s extremely effective thanks to his accuracy and willingness to move his head off the center line. While his chin has been proven to be durable in a fire fight, Pulyaev defends 55% of strikes coming back his way and is very responsible on the feet. If he’s able to remain consistent and keep Ruziboev on the end of his punches, he could see success throughout the middle portions of each round.
Ultimately, Pulyaev should be able to avoid a finish and extend Ruziboev to the final round. Depending on the pace he’s able to push and whether he can remain on his feet, Pulyaev could tire his opponent out and swing momentum in his favor with late bursts of striking in the third round.
Final Nursulton Ruziboev-Andrey Pulyaev Prediction & Pick
This fight should be a solid matchup and underdog Andrey Pulyaev has grown a reputation for playing up to his competition. Nursulton Ruziboev has looking increasingly sharp over his last few bouts and he’s clearly made an effort in evolving his game, making him the rightful favorite in this bout.
However, I think Pulyaev’s odds should be a bit higher here as he’s more willing to engage in a dog fight and absorb punches in the process opposite Ruziboev. The dirtier he can make this fight look, the more it will benefit him in the optics if Ruziboev gets tired at all during the later rounds.
For our final prediction, we’re going to side with Andrey Pulyaev to put forth another surprising performance as the underdog, this time earning the win with a late knockout or on the scorecards. Watch for him to grow stronger as the fight goes on in trying to extend Ruziboev into deep waters.
Final Nursulton Ruziboev-Andrey Pulyaev Prediction & Pick: Andrey Pulyaev (+185); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-210)
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