UFC Baku: Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres continues on the main card with a fight between Asu Almabayev and Charles Johnson in the flyweight division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Almabayev-Johnson prediction and pick.
Asu Almabayev (23-3) is firmly in the title conversation. He choked out Alex Perez with a lightning-fast guillotine in just 22 seconds of round three at UFC Fight Night in November 2025, extending one of the most dominant runs in the division as he comes into his fight this weekend against Charles Johnson.
Charles Johnson (19-8) has been on a bumpy but battle-tested road lately. He blasted Lone’er Kavanagh with a second-round KO punch in August 2025, but then stepped up against ranked contender Alex Perez and was stopped by a left hook TKO at 3:16 of round one in January 2026, before bouncing back with a gritty split decision over Bruno Silva in March 2026. A man who’s seen every kind of fight as he comes into his fight this weekend against Asu Almabayev.
UFC Baku Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Baku Odds: Asu Almabayev-Charles Johnson Odds
Asu Almabayev: -258
Charles Johnson: +210
Over 2.5 rounds: -260
Under 2.5 rounds: +195
Why Asu Almabayev Will Win
Asu “Zulfikar” Almabayev is a grappling nightmare, and his numbers make that crystal clear. He ranks in the 98th percentile for control time at 178 seconds per round, the 96th percentile for takedowns landed at 1.69 per round, and the 90th percentile for submission attempts, a trifecta that makes him one of the most suffocating flyweights on the entire UFC roster.
Charles Johnson’s number-one-ranked weakness is his defensive grappling, and he has been tapped out zero times simply because he hasn’t faced a submission threat like Almabayev yet. Almabayev’s nine career submission wins include rear naked chokes, guillotines, a Peruvian necktie, and an armbar, meaning he has a diverse enough submission arsenal to attack from multiple positions.
Johnson’s takedown defense sits at 69%, which sounds respectable until you realize Almabayev averages 4.46 takedown attempts per 15 minutes with 42% accuracy, he’ll get his shots, and he only needs one to chain into a finish. Once Almabayev gets Johnson pinned to the mat, his ground-and-pound accuracy of 73.8% will wear him down fast.
Almabayev’s 50% striking accuracy and elite cage control mean he can also make Johnson uncomfortable on the feet before pivoting to his dominant grappling game. At ranked #8 in the division and riding a dominant win streak, Almabayev has every tool needed to grind Johnson out and make a serious statement at UFC Baku.
Why Charles Johnson Will Win
Charles “InnerG” Johnson is a volume-striking machine, and his stats place him among the elite in the flyweight division. He ranks third all-time among UFC flyweights in striking differential at +1.47, and fifth all-time in strikes landed per minute, numbers that reflect a fighter who doesn’t just throw, he consistently out-works everyone he faces.
Almabayev’s most glaring weakness on the stat sheet is his KO/TKO defense, ranked dead last in the division, with zero career knockouts or TKOs on his résumé suggesting he’s never developed the punching power to keep opponents honest. Johnson carries eight career KO wins and a 0.34 knockdown average, meaning he has the legitimate stopping power to exploit that vulnerability in a major way.
Almabayev’s one UFC loss came against Manel Kape, where he was completely overwhelmed by speed and explosiveness, precisely the kind of high-output striking style that Johnson brings every single round. Johnson’s total strikes defense of 55% and his ability to absorb and keep firing make him the type of relentless pressure fighter that Almabayev simply has not solved.
Almabayev’s hand injury forced him off a scheduled headliner earlier this year, raising legitimate questions about his durability heading into this matchup. If Johnson can keep the fight standing and pour on his trademark volume, the upset is very much on the table.
Final Asu Almabayev-Charles Johnson Prediction & Pick
This flyweight matchup is a textbook striker vs. grappler collision, and the biggest variable is whether Johnson can keep his feet planted long enough to unload his volume striking before Almabayev drags him into deep water on the mat.
Johnson’s output is elite and his KO power is real, but Almabayev’s 98th percentile control time and suffocating top game represent a style that has broken far more experienced flyweights than Johnson. The moment this fight hits the canvas, the entire complexion changes dramatically in Almabayev’s favor.
Almabayev’s hand injury is worth monitoring, but he’s had ample time to recover and has shown no reluctance heading into fight week. Johnson’s best chance is a fast, aggressive first round that keeps Almabayev reactive and unable to establish his grappling rhythm.
Ultimately, Almabayev’s elite wrestling and submission depth make him the smarter pick in a five-round scenario.
Final Asu Almabayev-Charles Johnson Prediction & Pick: Asu Almabayev (-258), Under 2.5 rounds (+195)
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