UFC Baku: Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres continues on the prelims with a fight between Abus Magomedov and Michal Oleksiejczuk in the middleweight division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Magomedov-Oleksiejczuk prediction and pick.
Abus Magomedov (28-7-1) is one of the most experienced middleweights on the entire UFC roster. He dominated Michel Pereira with a unanimous decision in April 2025 to extend his winning streak, but then suffered a rough setback, getting submitted via rear naked choke by Joe Pyfer in round two at UFC 320 in October 2025. He’ll be looking to bounce back in a big way as he comes into his fight this weekend against Michal Oleksiejczuk.
Michal Oleksiejczuk (22-9) has been an absolute wrecking ball lately. The Polish middleweight TKO’d Sedriques Dumas at UFC 314 in April 2025, then blitzed Gerald Meerschaert with first-round punches at UFC 319 in August 2025 before grinding out a unanimous decision over Marc-Andre Barriault in February 2026. Three straight wins, all business, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Abus Magomedov.
UFC Baku Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Baku Odds: Abus Magomedov-Michal Oleksiejczuk Odds
Abus Magomedov: -112
Michal Oleksiejczuk: -108
Over 1.5 rounds: -135
Under 1.5 rounds: +105
Why Abus Magomedov Will Win
Abus Magomedov enters this fight with a massive stylistic advantage, and it lives on the mat. With a 100% takedown defense and a 59% takedown accuracy, Magomedov controls where the fight takes place and has the wrestling credentials to impose his will from the opening bell.
Oleksiejczuk’s grappling has been a career-long liability, with six submission losses on his record, a blueprint that elite grapplers have exploited repeatedly at the UFC level. Magomedov’s favorite techniques are chokes, and he has four guillotine finishes alone, meaning Oleksiejczuk will be in immediate danger every single time a clinch or scramble develops.
At 6’2″ with a significant reach advantage, Magomedov can operate at range on the feet while peppering Oleksiejczuk with low kicks and straight punches before closing the distance and changing levels. His 49% striking accuracy and 3.07 significant strikes per minute aren’t flashy numbers, but they reflect a composed, efficient fighter who picks his shots rather than brawling recklessly.
Oleksiejczuk only defends the takedown 52% of the time, which is an invitation Magomedov will be eager to accept repeatedly. After the setback against Pyfer, Magomedov has every motivation to return to his wrestling-heavy game plan and remind the middleweight division exactly how dangerous he is when he’s operating at his best.
Why Michal Oleksiejczuk Will Win
Michal Oleksiejczuk is one of the most dangerous knockout artists in the entire middleweight division, and his stats back it up brutally. Ranked 94th percentile in KO/TKO ability, he averages 1.15 knockdowns per 15 minutes and lands 5.85 significant strikes per minute, a volume and power combination that makes every exchange a life-or-death situation for his opponents.
Magomedov carries a well-documented cardio problem that has derailed him in multiple fights at the highest level. He was winning against Sean Strickland before physically falling apart in round two, and the same collapse happened against Joe Pyfer, a pattern that a pressure fighter like Oleksiejczuk will exploit mercilessly.
Oleksiejczuk has 15 career KO wins and eight first-round finishes, meaning he doesn’t need long to put the lights out. Magomedov absorbs 3.43 significant strikes per minute, and with Oleksiejczuk’s distance striking accuracy sitting at 48%, the Polish powerhouse has every tool needed to find the chin early and often.
The Hussar is currently riding a three-fight win streak and operating with the kind of confidence that comes from back-to-back first-round stoppages. Magomedov is 35 years old with fading cardio and a freshly exposed chin, Oleksiejczuk smells blood, and in this division, that’s all a finisher needs.
Final Abus Magomedov-Michal Oleksiejczuk Prediction & Pick
This is a classic striker vs. grappler battle, and while Oleksiejczuk’s knockout power demands respect, the smart money lands on the man who can dictate where this fight takes place. Magomedov’s 100% takedown defense and elite wrestling credentials give him the ability to neutralize Oleksiejzcuk’s most dangerous weapon before it ever fully loads.
Oleksiejczuk will come out swinging early, looking for the quick finish the way he always does, but Magomedov has the composure and the clinch work to weather that early storm and drag the fight into uncomfortable territory.
Once Magomedov secures a takedown and begins working his guillotine setups, Oleksiejczuk’s six career submission losses become the defining storyline of this matchup. The Hussar has been caught on the mat before, and Magomedov has the finishing pedigree to make it happen again.
At 28-7-1 with a career built on suffocating grappling, Magomedov has every tool to bounce back in style and put the middleweight division on notice.
Final Abus Magomedov-Michal Oleksiejczuk Prediction & Pick: Abus Magomedov (-112), Over 1.5 rounds (-130)
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