UFC Baku: Fiziev vs. Torres continues to roll as we bring you another prediction and pick for this upcoming Lightweight (155) tilt on the Main Card. Nazim Sadykhov will represent Azerbaijan by way of Longo MMA to welcome Brazil’s Matheus Camilo in a high-level scrap. Check our UFC odds series for the Sadykhov-Camilo prediction and pick.
Nazim Sadykhov (11-2-1) has gone 4-1-1 inside the UFC since 2023. Riding back-to-back wins following his majority draw ruling against Viacheslav Borshchev, he suffered the first loss of his tenure last time out against Fares Ziam. Now, Sadykhov will look to gain his momentum back fighting in front of his home Aerbaijan crowd. He stands 5-foot-10 with a 69-inch reach.
Matheus Camilo (10-3) is 1-1 through his first two UFC appearances, falling to Gabe Green during his debut but rebounding against Viacheslav Borshchev via unanimous decision his last time out. He’s a former 3-1 prospect from Fury FC and could greatly improve his stock with a win as the underdog here. Camilo stands 5-foot-10 with a 69-inch reach.
UFC Baku Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Baku Odds: Nazim Sadykhov-Matheus Camilo Odds
Nazim Sadykhov: -238
Matheus Camilo: +195
Over 2.5 rounds: +130
Under 2.5 rounds: -166
Why Nazim Sadykhov Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Fares Ziam – TKO (strikes, R2)
- Last 5: 3-1-1
- Finishes: 8 KO/TKO, 2 SUB
Typically strong on the ground and with his wrestling, Nazim Sadykhov greatly struggled against the long and wiry frame of Fares Ziam during his last bout. Expected to stand and strike for three rounds, Ziam worked the grappling throughout the first round and neutralized Sadykhov’s offense. At the end of the second round, Sadykhov let his guard down at the buzzer and allowed Ziam to catch him clean with multiple strikes for the finish.
This time around, Sadykhov should have a much easier physical matchup as both him and Camilo share similar attributes. His opponent’s only losses inside the distance have also come by way of submission, so Sadykhov should prove to be the stronger grappler throughout this fight. He fights behind a solid 45% takedown accuracy despite favoring most of his exchanges to take place on the feet.
Sadykhov is very solid in his striking stance and isn’t afraid to trade inside a phone booth against his opponent. Once he closes the distance, he plants his feet and unleashes strikes in succession with his hooks to both the head and body. If he lands a few clean ones early, he should have Camilo on the ropes by the second round.
Why Matheus Camilo Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Viacheslav Borshchev – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 2 SUB
Matheus Camilo notched his first UFC win last time out against Viacheslav Borshchev, dominating the UFC veteran for three rounds at just 24 years old. He’ll be looking to mount some momentum as a rising prospect and will have a great training camp in Las Vegas’ Xtreme Couture preparing him for this fight. A win over Sadykhov would propel him forward into facing some serious competition earlier than expected.
Camilo is very focused with his striking and although it’s still raw, he’s shown a willingness to improve his defense and remain patient when choosing his shots. When he’s been able to tie his opponents up, Camilo does a great job bringing them to the ground and retaining an advantageous position. He’s even dangerous from his closed guard and will threaten triangles and armbars from the bottom.
To be successful here, Camilo should look to limit any risks while just matching Sadykhov’s pace throughout this fight. His opponent will likely be the aggressor closing the distance, so Camilo should focus on his spacing and tossing his lead hands out front to disrupt the timing of his opponent.
Final Nazim Sadykhov-Matheus Camilo Prediction & Pick
This should be a fun fight for as long as it lasts, but something tells me both men will be fighting urgently on the feet to take each other out. Both have the ability to do so and both have had their chins tested in the past, so this fight could come down to whoever’s able to land the cleaner combination first.
Matheus Camilo should be able to gain strong control in the grappling if these two end up on the ground. Sadykhov has shown gaps in his own submission grappling, but it’s worth noting all three of Camilo’s losses have come by way of submission. If Sadykhov is sharp on the ground during this fight, he could exploit Camilo’s weakness and find the second submission win of his UFC tenure.
For our final prediction, we’ll roll with Nazim Sadykhov to rise to the occasion in front of his home Azerbaijan fans and deliver a win to get back on his winning track. However, don’t doubt the evolution of Matheus Camilo as he should offer a much more competitive look than this betting line indicates.
Final Nazim Sadykhov-Matheus Camilo Prediction & Pick: Nazim Sadykhov (-238); UNDER 2.5 Rounds (-166)
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