The USMNT opens its 2026 World Cup Group D campaign against Paraguay on Friday. They follow that up with a match against Australia a week later, and finish off the Group Stage against Turkiye six days after that. Common sense says that the USMNT will want to win all those matches, and, of course, the players and manager will. However, due to the new 48-team World Cup format, the U.S. would actually be better off finishing second in Group D, as opposed to first or third.
A quick primer on how the 2026 World Cup format works. In the past, with 32 teams, the top two teams in each group moved on, and the winner of one group played the second-place team from another.
Now, with 48 teams, the top two teams from all 12 groups move on, with the next eight best third-place finishers moving on as well. This complicates things dramatically for all the nations involved.
Why 2nd place in Group D offers USMNT best chance to advance
If the USMNT finishes second in Group D during the 2026 World Cup, they’ll first face the second-place team in Group G. That group consists of Belgium, Egypt, Iran, and New Zealand. While Belgium would be a tough Round of 32 opponent, having recently beaten the USMNT 5-2, they should win that group. That leaves Egypt, Iran, or New Zealand, all of whom the U.S. would be favored against.
In the Round of 16, the defending champs, Argentina, and Lionel Messi likely await. However, if the title holders somehow finish second in their group, the opponent would likely be Austria, a team without a massive World Cup pedigree, or Uruguay, a squad ranked just one spot above the U.S. in the FIFA world rankings.
After that, the matchup would probably be with Portugal, a team the USMNT has hung with in the World Cup before.
If Portugal doesn’t win its group, the U.S. would be looking at Colombia, Canada, Switzerland, or Ecuador, which are all teams that Mauricio Pochettino and company would have a real shot at beating and making the final four.
So, from a second-place slot with a little luck, the USMNT’s path to the semifinals could be through Iran, Austria, and Canada, which would be the best possible scenario.
Winning Group D is no prize
If the USMNT wins Group D, that is, of course, a good sign. It means they are playing well, beating who they should beat, and that they played an excellent match against a dangerous squad like Turkiye.
That said, the path to the semifinals for the Group D winner is potentially a lot tougher than for the team that finishes in second.
The winner of Group D takes on a third-place squad, which could give the USMNT its easiest Round of 32 opponent. However, lurking in potential third-place spots are teams like Canada, Japan, Sweden, or even Norway. Still, the likelihood is that they actually get a relatively easy matchup with nations like Qatar, Ivory Coast, Senegal, or Iraq, to name a few.
After that, though, things get much stickier than they do if the USMNT gets the second-place path. On deck would be Belgium, followed by either Spain, the tournament favorites, or Colombia. Those matchups in the Round of 16 and quarterfinals make it feel as though the U.S. is advancing to the semis would be near impossible.
Coming in 3rd likely means an early exit for USMNT
Unsurprisingly, coming in third place and backing into the Knockout Stage that way is the worst outcome for the USMNT. Depending on how they fare among the third-place teams that move on, they would face the winners of either Group I or Group K. That means either Kylian Mbappe and France or Erling Haaland and Norway out of Group I, or Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal or Luis Diaz and Colombia.
If this is the USMNT’s path to start the knockouts after finishing third in Group D, that is likely the end of the road for the 2026 iteration of the national team.
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