UFC Freedom 250: Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje continues with the main event fight between Ilia Topuria and Kyle Daukaus for the undisputed lightweight championship on Sunday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Topuria-Gaethje prediction and pick.
Ilia Topuria (17-0) rides a three-fight finishing streak over Alexander Volkanovski, Max Holloway, and Charles Oliveira, starching Volk and Holloway before knocking out Oliveira in a round en route to becoming a two-division champ as he comes into his fight this weekend against Justin Gaethje.
Justin Gaethje (27-5) rides a two-fight winning streak, out-dueling Rafael Fiziev before gutting out a five-round war to outpoint Paddy Pimblett to gain interim lightweight gold, leaning on pressure, calf kicks, and attritional boxing as he comes into his fight this weekend against Ilia Topuria.
UFC Freedom 250 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Freedom 250 Odds: Ilia Topuria-Justin Gaethje Odds
Ilia Topuria: -520
Justin Gaethje: +390
Over 1.5 rounds: -110
Under 1.5 rounds: -120
Why Ilia Topuria Will Win
Ilia Topuria has the cleaner, more layered game at this stage, with an undefeated 17-0 record and an 88 percent finish rate built on surgical boxing, sharp counters, and a fully functional grappling threat. He consistently maintains defensive responsibility even while pressing, which is crucial against a volume brawler like Justin Gaethje.
Gaethje’s leg kicks, pressure, and head-hunting combinations remain lethal, but they also expose him to the exact kind of pocket counters Topuria has used to sleep Alexander Volkanovski, Max Holloway, and Charles Oliveira. Justin’s defense still relies heavily on shelling and trusting his chin, and Topuria is one of the few lightweights with enough accuracy and power to punish that approach cleanly.
On top of that, Gaethje’s historical issues when put in bad grappling spots—defensive wrestling and scrambling off his back, loom large against a legit black belt who has eight submission wins and rarely needs to lean on that part of his game. If Ilia mixes in level changes or even just the threat of takedowns, he can further open up his hands and keep Gaethje guessing.
Add in the age curve, Topuria entering his prime at 29 while Gaethje is 37 with countless wars on his record, and you get a matchup where Ilia’s youth, composure, and finishing instincts line up to eventually crack a still-dangerous but increasingly hittable champion.
Why Justin Gaethje Will Win
Justin Gaethje has a real path to handing Ilia Topuria his first loss by leaning into volume, attrition, and a more disciplined version of his trademark chaos. He averages more significant strikes per minute than Topuria, and over five rounds his calf kicks, body work, and pressure can accumulate damage in ways Ilia hasn’t yet had to endure at lightweight.
Topuria’s boxing is tighter and more efficient, but he’s also comparatively low-volume and heavily boxing-centric, which gives Gaethje clear targets for leg kicks, teeps, and jabs to disrupt his base and rhythm. If Justin sticks to a game plan built on distance management—keeping Ilia at the end of his jab and punting his lead leg, he can slow the champion’s entries and blunt those explosive pocket counters.
Gaethje also brings a deeper reservoir of five-round experience and an underused wrestling background he can deploy defensively to keep this standing or offensively in spots to force Topuria to work off his back. In a prolonged, high-pace war, the older, battle-tested Gaethje has shown he can maintain insane output and composure deep into fights, while Topuria has more often won on early, decisive moments than extended attritional battles at 155.
Final Ilia Topuria-Justin Gaethje Prediction & Pick
Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje feels like a “moment of truth” fight where Topuria’s precision meets Gaethje’s chaos. I slightly favor Topuria because his defense, shot selection, and composure in the pocket are a bad mix for a guy who still banks on eating shots to land his own.
Early, Gaethje’s leg kicks and pressure are absolutely live to steal momentum, especially if he forces Ilia to circle on the outside and reset rather than plant and counter. But as the fight settles, Topuria’s ability to read patterns, slip inside, and fire tight combinations to head and body should start finding cleaner, more telling connections.
Gaethje’s durability and cardio keep him dangerous late, yet his tendency to get squared up and trade in place leaves too many openings for a finisher as accurate as Ilia.
Ultimately, Ilia Topuria defends his lightweight title for the first time by mid-fight TKO after a wild, competitive start where both men land huge shots.
Final Ilia Topuria-Justin Gaethje Prediction & Pick: Ilia Topuria (-520), Over 1.5 Rounds (-110)
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