We’re back with another prediction and pick for UFC Freedom 250 as the Heavyweight Division takes center-stage from the South Lawn. UFC knockout king and No. 9-ranked Derrick Lewis takes on the rising and always exciting No. 5 Josh Hokit. Check our UFC odds series for the Lewis-Hokit prediction and pick.
Derrick Lewis (29-13) has gone 20-11 inside the UFC since 2014 while notching 24 knockouts for the UFC’s most all-time. He most recently fell to Waldo Cortes-Acosta in January, but makes this appearance on special request from the president himself, hoping to add another knockout to his resume. Lewis stands 6-foot-3 with a 79-inch reach.
Josh Hokit (9-0) is a perfect 3-0 through his first UFC appearances, most recently putting away top-ranked Curtis Blaydes in the leading ‘Fight of the Year’ contender for 2026. Just two months later, Hokit will look for another sensational performance at the White House with all of America watching. He stands 6-foot-1 with a 73.5-inch reach.
UFC Freedom 250 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Freedom 250 Odds: Derrick Lewis-Josh Hokit Odds
Derrick Lewis: +320
Josh Hokit: -410
Over 1.5 rounds: +154
Under 1.5 rounds: -200
Why Derrick Lewis Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Waldo Cortes-Acosta– TKO (ground-and-pound, R2)
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 24 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Derrick Lewis came into his last bout against Waldo Cortes-Acosta as the +260 betting underdog and it didn’t seem as though whatever game plan he had established would offer much resistance to his rising opponent. Lewis has looked a step slow against strong boxers with fast hands, but he’s far more comfortable knocking out fighters less mobile than himself like Tallison Teixeira and Rodrigo Nascimento most recently.
During this fight, Lewis will be tasked with the exact style he hates to see: an athletic big man with great movement and fast hands like Hokit. Still, Lewis has seen just about every type of opponent available to him throughout his UFC tenure, so watch him to counter nonetheless as he swings for the fences in searching for the knockout.
Lewis will also be very motivated to perform in this fight given his special invitation, so don’t be surprised if he opens with a flying knee or tries playing possum to bait Hokit into letting his guards down. Either way, we should get the most exciting version of Derrick Lewis given the circumstances and regardless of the odds or final result.
Why Josh Hokit Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Curtis Blaydes – U DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Josh Hokit put together one of the best heavyweight performances in recent memory with his all-out war against Curtis Blaydes. Hokit landed 181 significant strikes and while Blaydes landed more with 218, it was clear Hokit had the heavier shots with more damage behind them. He took everything Blaydes had to throw at him and came out on the other end ready for another three rounds, a true testament to his pace and cardio on the feet.
During this fight, expect Hokit to bring that same energy to Lewis as he’ll be expecting to put on another exciting performance. He’s clearly a showman at heart and will allow his opponent to get back in the fight, but Hokit is great for walking through punches and disregarding any look his opponent throws at him. It’s a sort of controlled chaos that no other fighter has been able to figure out until this point, making this fight all the more interesting.
Despite the odds, Hokit will constantly be on the lookout for Derrick Lewis’ overhand right and watching any uppercuts when these two meet in the clinch. While Blaydes’ punches grew wary throughout Hokit’s last fight, Lewis’ punching power will remain consistent and dangerous throughout the whole fight. He’ll have to be much more defensive this time around if he wants to avoid another back-and-forth close decision.
Final Derrick Lewis-Josh Hokit Prediction & Pick
This fight will be tense throughout the opening moments as everyone will be waiting for Derrick Lewis to make the first move. However, this is Josh Hokit’s show and he’ll be the one pressuring Lewis and putting this knockout king on his back foot.
While Derrick Lewis will always stand a chance with his all-time great knockout ability, he’s clearly struggled with this new crop of versatile heavyweights with elite boxing skills. Josh Hokit represents exactly that and then some with his D-I wrestling experience at Fresno State. His movement, speed, and most of all his cardio will be the biggest threat to Derrick Lewis throughout this fight.
Confidently, we’ll back Josh Hokit to win this fight inside the distance. Derrick Lewis hasn’t put up much resistance when he’s on the ropes of being finished, but still don’t be surprised if he fakes being hurt in order to draw Hokit in. Hokit will be looking to put on a show as the total goes over and he wins with a TKO finish late.
Final Derrick Lewis-Josh Hokit Prediction & Pick: Josh Hokit (-410); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-154)
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