UFC Freedom 250 is finally here from the South Lawn of the White House as we bring you a prediction and pick for the opening bout in the Featherweight (145) Division. No. 2-ranked Diego Lopes of Brazil takes on New Mexico’s No. 9 Steve Garcia. Check our UFC odds series for the Lopes-Garcia prediction and pick.
Diego Lopes (27-8) is 6-3 inside the UFC since debuting in 2023. He opened with a 5-1 record but is 1-2 over his last three fights. He challenged Alexander Volkanovski for the belt in a rematch but came up short and hopes to bounce back against a new contender. Lopes stands 5-foot-11 with a 72.5-inch reach.
Steve Garcia (19-5) has gone 8-2 inside the UFC since 2020, winning his last seven consecutive bouts for one of the longer active winning streaks in the featherweight division. He most recently put away David Onama and Calvin Kattar in succession, now looking to steal Lopes ranking and immediately place himself on the doorstep of a title shot. Garcia stands six feet tall with a 75-inch reach.
UFC Freedom 250 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Freedom 250 Odds: Diego Lopes-Steve Garcia Odds
Diego Lopes: -155
Steve Garcia: +130
Over 1.5 rounds: -130
Under 1.5 rounds: +100
Why Diego Lopes Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Alexander Volkanovski – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 11 KO/TKO, 12 SUB
Diego Lopes fell short to Alexander Volkanovski once again in his first title opportunity, putting together a better showing during the first half of the rematch but ultimately losing momentum by the third round. Volkanovski looked like his usual dominant self and it goes to show the levels within this featherweight division. Still, Lopes’ most recent wins over top talents like Jean Silva, Brian Ortega, and Dan Ige suggest he’s still one of the most lethal finishers in the UFC and is fighting on this White House card for a reason.
Lopes’ striking has gotten worlds better since his arrival to the UFC and he’s been much more comfortable remaining on the feet and not forcing the grappling as much. However, he’ll still be at a slight disadvantage against a pure boxer like Garcia who’s very quick with his hands and fluid with his movement. Lopes should instead look to use striking in setting up his takedowns and forcing the grappling where he can truly be successful during this fight.
That’s easier said than done and it’ll take a number of quick decisions along the fence for Lopes to effectively bring Garcia down as he sports an impressive 88% takedown defense. Lopes will have to get creative in using arm drags and inside trips to catch his opponent off-guard as well as maximizing openings on the ground to reverse positions. Garcia is a great wrestler but we should see a stern gap in the jiu jitsu skill levels and timing.
Why Steve Garcia Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) David Onama – U DEC (punches, R1)
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 15 KO/TKO
Steve Garcia has been flawless during this recent run through the rankings as he’s beaten impressive, multi-faceted opponents like Melquizael Costa, Chase Hooper, Kyle Nelson, and Calvin Kattar. During that run, Garcia has been awarded four ‘Performance of the Night’ bonuses thanks to his slick boxing and ability to finish the fight decisively. He’s been a quiet, consistent finisher and the UFC is finally rewarding him with a chance to place himself atop the division.
Garcia’s greatest strength is his boxing and his ability to flow through the exchanges. He doesn’t typically absorb too much damage on the feet as his striking defense is on the higher end at 59%. He lands a blistering 5.39 significant strikes per minutes, clearly outpacing Lopes in all categories on the feet.
During this fight, he’ll have to use active foot movement and constantly remain ready to sprawl and stuff the takedowns from Lopes. Expect his opponent to shoot for takedowns in desperation if Garcia is piecing him up on the feet early. Either way, Garcia will have to be much more cautious in facing Lopes compared to any other opponent he’s seen up to this point.
Final Diego Lopes-Steve Garcia Prediction & Pick
This is arguably the closest fight on the Freedom 250 card in terms of styles as Diego Lopes owns the grappling and Steve Garcia owns the stand-up. Things may be more difficult for Lopes, however, as Garcia is very strong with his takedown defense and could encourage Lopes to try and beat him with wild punches on the feet.
This fight could be determined by the first few takedown attempts and how easily Lopes is able to get Garcia on the ground. If he struggles, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Garcia build a huge lead in the striking numbers, making it more difficult for Lopes to remain competitive.
For our final prediction, we’ll roll with Steve Garcia to earn the win in an extremely close fight. He may have the blueprint on beating Lopes from Volkanovski and if his hands are on-point, he’ll dominate in the striking department. Still, the total over is the much safer play here.
Final Diego Lopes-Steve Garcia Prediction & Pick: Steve Garcia (+130); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-130)
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