Trade rumors followed Detroit Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal throughout his injury absence. With his return expected to be just days away, here are three bold predictions for Skubal before his return from elbow surgery.
Unlike other elbow surgeries that typically sideline MLB pitchers for months or longer, Skubal had a NanoScope procedure. And the difference was night and day, according to MLB.com.
“I think just the next day, I started to feel better,” Skubal said. “From other surgeries I’ve had in the past, you’re in a cast. And you can’t move your arm. This one, I wasn’t in one. I was in an arm sleeve and actually encouraged to get back range of motion as fast as I can. Within about 3-4 days, I think, we got there, and I think that was very encouraging.”
Now he’s scheduled to start Saturday against the Guardians. The left-hander turned in an excellent rehab start, striking out six over five scoreless innings for High-A West Michigan on Sunday.
Tigers SP Tarik Skubal will find his old form quickly
It probably won’t happen Saturday against the Guardians, as he will likely be on a limited pitch count.
But it shouldn’t take long for Skubal to get back in the neighborhood where he’s lived for two years. He’s the two-time defending Cy Young award winner. And while the injury makes it unlikely he will pull off a three-peat, he’s still in the prime of his pitching career.
Over the last two seasons, he has led the major leagues in WAR (6.7 and 6.4), wins (18 in 2024), ERA (2.39 and 2.21), and strikeouts (228 in 2024).
This year, he made seven starts before going on the shelf. His record was 3-2, and he posted an ERA of 2.70. The only off-putting number was just 45 strikeouts in 43.1 innings. But his walk-to-strikeout ratio of 45:6 was slightly better than this 2025 mark.
Just the fact that he’s back in the big leagues so quickly makes it more probable that he will be the same pitcher as before. Count Jeff Passan as impressed, according to his post on X.
“Tarik Skubal underwent elbow surgery May 6. One month and one day later, he threw five scoreless innings on 54 pitches and punched out six at High-A. Maybe Skubal is just that guy. But if nanoscope technology halves the return time from bone-chip injuries, what an advancement.”
If nothing else, he has set a high bar for other pitchers who experience this procedure. And perhaps this will become the go-to procedure, even if cases are borderline.
Tigers won’t get a needed team boost from Tarik Skubal
There are too many other issues for the Tigers. Expecting Skubal to make all things better is too much. The pitching staff is sketchy overall, even with Skubal.
Having won six of their last eight, there’s a little light at the end of the tunnel. But that came on the heels of a woeful 4-21 stretch. It’s hard to imagine the Tigers overcoming that long a bad run and making the playoffs. Think of it this way: They could 21-4 over a different stretch, and they’re still only .500 combined over the course of 50 games. That’s almost a third of the season.
Skubal doesn’t wield a bat. And even if he keeps delivering like he did earlier this year — including four starts where he allowed exactly one run — it doesn’t automatically add up to wins. The bullpen still has to finish. And the bats have to come alive.
Tarik Skubal will get traded within the next month
The trade deadline doesn’t come until Aug. 3, but don’t expect Skubal to be one of those deadline cliffhangers. Once the Tigers get what they see as full value, they’ll help him pack with a pat on the back.
Delaying a deal makes no sense when a guy recently had an elbow procedure. The Tigers shouldn’t wait for something else to happen. It’s not like Skubal is a big risk, but there’s more risk than a pitcher who hasn’t had a procedure — especially a new one with no long-term results from other players. Who knows, maybe the new term will be “Tarik Skubal surgery,” and it will be a much better outcome than Tommy John surgery.
And the trade that makes the most sense right now is the Dodgers. Let’s make things clear. The Dodgers are chasing history. If they can bump Shohei Ohtani from the SP1 slot and move Yoshinobu Yamamoto into the SP3 hole, that pitching staff looks untameable in October. And when everybody outside of the Dodgers organization and the LA fan base wants you to fail, you need to have incredible weaponry.
Skubal would give them that. And the Dodgers’ potential package of RHP Emmet Sheehan, OF Zyhir Hope, and SS Aidan West is the best ticket for the Tigers to cash, according to ESPN.
“Nobody has the combination of pitching and outfield prospect depth of the Dodgers, and that allows Los Angeles to provide a wholly unique package: a good major league starter, a top-50 prospect in Hope, and a 19-year-old middle infielder who has scouts in the Arizona Complex League buzzing,” Jeff Passan wrote. “Sheehan would immediately slot into the Tigers’ rotation. Hope should be ready to join Riley Greene and Max Clark in Detroit’s outfield next year. And West adds necessary depth to the system. It’s a wild overpay, but the possibility of three straight rings calls for that.”
Yes, three straight rings are the carrot. And maybe Skubal helps the Tigers win their own ring in the near future, without pitching for them.
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