UFC Vegas 119: Manel Kape vs. Kyoji Horiguchi continues on the prelims with a fight between Gaston Bolanos and Joanderson Brito in the featherweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Bolanos-Aswell prediction and pick.
Gaston Bolaños (8-5) has gone just 2-2 inside the UFC, most recently dropping a second-round rear-naked choke submission to Quang Le in May 2025, after earning a unanimous decision win over Cortavious Romious in November 2024. A former Muay Thai world champion with six KO wins, the Peruvian fighter brings elite striking credentials as he comes into his fight this weekend against Michael Aswell.
Michael Aswell Jr. (11-4) enters UFC Vegas 119 sitting at 1-2 inside the Octagon, most recently dropping a unanimous decision loss to Luke Riley at UFC London in March 2026, after a strong showing over Lucas Almeida prior. The 25-year-old Texas featherweight looks to right the ship as he comes into his fight this weekend against Gastón Bolaños.
UFC Vegas 119 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 119 Odds: Gaston Bolanos-Michael Aswell Jr. Odds
Gaston Bolanos: +330
Michael Aswell Jr.: -420
Over 2.5 rounds: -166
Under 2.5 rounds: +130
Why Gaston Bolanos Will Win
Gaston Bolanos is a Muay Thai world champion with over 50 combat sports fights under his belt, bringing a level of striking pedigree that Michael Aswell simply cannot match on the feet. His 49% striking accuracy combined with a calculated, patient style makes him incredibly difficult to time and counter.
Aswell absorbs a staggering 7.43 significant strikes per minute, one of the highest absorption rates in the division, and against a precision striker like Bolanos, that number is a serious red flag. “The Dreamkiller” doesn’t throw wild shots, he sets traps, works angles, and punishes opponents who stand in front of him.
Bolanos has also shown the ability to grind fights out to a decision when needed, going the distance in his UFC win over Cortavious Romious, demonstrating fight IQ beyond just early-round explosiveness. Aswell, meanwhile, has dropped all four of his professional losses by decision, suggesting he fades and struggles to impose his game plan over full fights.
With Bolaños sharpening his craft at Bangtao Muay Thai ahead of this camp, he enters this fight at peak preparation and motivated to get back in the win column. The experience gap on the feet is simply too wide, Bolanos wins this one by calculated striking over three rounds.
Why Michael Aswell Jr. Will Win
Michael Aswell Jr. is a 25-year-old featherweight with a sharp jab, BJJ training, and the athleticism to give Bolanos serious problems if he can keep the fight dynamic. At just 25 years old, his physical tools and youth could prove to be a significant advantage over the 33-year-old Bolanos in the later rounds.
Bolanos has a notable vulnerability to submissions, having been tapped out by Quang Le in May 2025 via rear-naked choke in just under two minutes of the second round.
Bolanos has also been KO’d inside the Octagon before, stopped by Marcus McGhee in the second round in January 2024, proving he can be hurt and finished by opponents who apply consistent pressure. Aswell’s volume striking and forward pressure style could walk Bolaños into a dangerous exchange.
With the momentum of fighting on a big UFC card and backed by a strong team in Houston, Aswell has every reason to be confident heading in, and a motivated 25-year-old with something to prove is always dangerous.
Final Gaston Bolanos-Michael Aswell Jr. Prediction & Pick
This is a striking-versus-striking matchup that should produce fireworks early, with Bolanos looking to control range and land his trademark Muay Thai combinations while Aswell looks to apply the pressure and overwhelm Bolanos with volume.
The key question is whether Aswell can survive the first round on the feet, where Bolanos is at his most dangerous and has finished 10 opponents in the opening frame.
If Aswell can weather that early storm and drag him into deep waters, his relentless pressure and boxing combinations becomes a genuine threat given Bolanos’ history of being finished via strikes. The longer the fight goes, the more the 25-year-old Aswell’s youth and gas tank become factors.
However, Bolanos’ world-class striking experience across 50-plus combat sports fights is simply too deep a well to overcome for a fighter with only three UFC appearances.
The pick here is Gaston Bolanos by unanimous decision, as his veteran composure, Muay Thai accuracy, and fight IQ allow him to neutralize Aswell’s relentless forward pressure and outwork him over three rounds.
Final Gaston Bolanos-Michael Aswell Jr. Prediction & Pick: Gaston Bolanos (+330), Over 2.5 Rounds (-166)
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