The UFC Vegas 119 Prelims will continue to roll from Las Vegas as we’re back with another prediction and pick for this next bout at Women’s Bantamweight (135). Ranked Brazilians will face off as No. 8 Karol Rosa takes on No. 11-ranked Luana Santos in an extremely well-matched fight. Check our UFC odds series for the Rosa-Santos prediction and pick.
Karol Rosa (19-7) has gone 8-4 inside the UFC since 2019. She’s searching for consistency as she’s alternated wins and losses over her last nine bouts for a 5-4 record, most recently beating Nora Cornolle via unanimous decision. She’ll look to continue climbing the rankings as the betting favorite here, standing 5-foot-7 with a 67.5-inch reach.
Luana Santos (10-2) is an impressive 5-1 inside the UFC since 2023, most recently beating Melissa Croden via unanimous decision in December 2025. She’s now notched back-to-back wins and has secured a spot in the top-15 rankings with a chance to jump several spots if she can beat Rosa as the underdog. Santos stands 5-foot-7 with a 67-inch reach.
UFC Vegas 119 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 119 Odds: Karol Rosa-Luana Santos Odds
Karol Rosa: -120
Luana Santos: +100
Over 2.5 rounds: -600
Under 2.5 rounds: +390
Why Karol Rosa Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Nora Cornolle – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 2 SUB
Karol Rosa comes into this bout following a complete performance against Nora Cornolle where she landed 190 significant strikes and completed two of three takedowns attempts for complete control on the ground. Cornolle came into the bout as the more talented striker, but Rosa quickly found a home in her jab and kept following it up with her right hand to keep Cornolle from finding any sort of rhythm. If she comes into this bout with the same form and aggression, she could make this a very long night for Luana Santos in the stand-up game.
Rosa is solid is every aspect of the fight game and she breaks opponents down with her consistency and constant pressure. She has yet to be finished inside the UFC and earned ‘Fight of the Night’ honors for her 2023 loss against Irene Aldana, so Rosa can always be counted on for a competitive bout. She has much more experience over Santos and has faced the better competition, so she’ll be looking to use that experience as an advantage in this fight.
Rosa shouldn’t look to mix things up on the ground too much as Santos thrives most when she’s using her jiu jitsu. Instead, Rosa should look to meet Santos in the middle of the octagon while throwing an aggressive jab and forcing Santos to work around it. Santos has been known to fall behind in the striking numbers during the onset of the first round, so Rosa would greatly benefit from starting this fight fast and keeping her foot on the gas throughout.
Why Luana Santos Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Melissa Croden – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 1 KO/TKO, 5 SUB
Luana Santos notched yet another win for back-to-back victories as she completely controlled the action against Melissa Croden throughout her last appearance. She looked to be one step ahead of Croden all night and it’s clear the fight game is beginning to slow down for her as she grows increasingly comfortable with each passing fight.
During this outing, Santos should look to remain calm and composed despite Rosa likely pushing the action early. Still, Santos will have to remain firm in her stance and not fight off her back foot as it’s a spot where Rosa thrives in putting her opponents into. Santos should look to keep her arm guard high and find the counters when available hoping that Rosa will whiff and over-extend on her shots.
On the ground, Santos has a strong advantage and could look to take the fight there behind her 47% takedown accuracy. Rosa sports a 70% takedown defense rate, but Santos is very skilled with her inside trips and body lock takedowns, likely surprising Rosa in the process if she can get her to the ground.
Final Karol Rosa-Luana Santos Prediction & Pick
This will be one of the more evenly-matched fights on the entire card as both women have a claim to a top-10 ranking. Karol Rosa put together one of her best performances her last time out, but her recent trends suggest she’s due for a loss unless she can notch back-to-back wins for the first time since 2021.
Luana Santos, on the other hand, is riding a ton of positive momentum as this will be her first true test against a top-10 talent at bantamweight. She’ll need to be diligent in keeping her striking consistent, but immediately takes the advantage if she can bring this fight to the ground.
For our final prediction, we’re going to roll with Luana Santos and her constant evolution over the past few fights. She’s looking more comfortable and fluid with each passing bout and she could be primed for her best performance to-date in this one.
Final Karol Rosa-Luana Santos Prediction & Pick: Luana Santos (+100); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-600)
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