UFC Vegas 119: Manel Kape vs. Kyoji Horiguchi continues on the prelims with a fight between Leon Shahbazyan and Levan Chokheli in the welterweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Shahbazyan-Chokheli prediction and pick.
Leon Shahbazyan (12-4) rides in on a four-fight win streak, most recently submitting Robert Hale by first-round armbar in March after choking out Gláucio Eliziário in 43 seconds last September, with all four recent wins coming by submission, now as he comes into his fight this weekend against Levan Chokheli.
Levan Chokheli (14-3, 1 NC) enters off a second-round TKO over Alexandre Goncalves in May 2025, bouncing back from a first-round knockout loss to Lorenz Larkin in September 2024 after earlier Bellator wins over Sabah Homasi and Michael Lombardo, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Leon Shahbazyan.
UFC Vegas 119 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 119 Odds: Leon Shahbazyan-Levan Chokheli Odds
Leon Shahbazyan: +295
Levan Chokheli: -375
Over 1.5 rounds: +154
Under 1.5 rounds: -200
Why Leon Shahbazyan Will Win
Leon Shahbazyan enters this fight as the more well-rounded threat, and his submission game alone should be enough to give Chokheli serious problems on the ground. With 11 of his 12 wins coming by way of tapout, Leon is a finishing machine who knows how to impose his will once the fight hits the mat.
At 6’4″ with a 74.5-inch reach, Shahbazyan also holds a meaningful size advantage over the 6’0″ Chokheli, and in a welterweight bout, that length creates real problems at range. Leon can use that frame to control distance, neutralize Chokheli’s boxing, and drag the fight into the grappling exchanges where he thrives.
Chokheli is a dangerous striker with 11 KO wins, but he carries a glaring zero submission victories on his record, meaning his ground game remains an unproven commodity at this level. The second the fight goes to the floor, Chokheli is firmly in Shahbazyan territory.
Leon has also shown the ability to finish fights in all three rounds, demonstrating cardio and composure under pressure. Chokheli, by contrast, was stopped cold by Lorenz Larkin, showing he can be hurt and finished when pushed. Factor in Leon’s Tuff-N-Uff submission run leading into this UFC debut, and the momentum clearly favors Shahbazyan on fight night.
Why Levan Chokheli Will Win
evan Chokheli is one of the most dangerous one-punch finishers in the welterweight division, and his 11 KO wins, with 10 of them coming in the first round, make him a walking nightmare for anyone willing to stand and trade with him. Leon Shahbazyan loves to get the fight to the ground, but to do that, he has to survive the striking phase first.
Chokheli’s KO power is legitimate at every level, having even earned a KO of the year contender at Bellator 299 with a stunning front kick finish. If Leon reaches for that takedown, he’s walking directly into that right hand — and Chokheli has shown he can time entries beautifully.
Leon’s striking defense is a legitimate concern, sitting at just 32% strike defense according to UFC stats. Chokheli is precisely the type of explosive puncher who can exploit that gap early and often.
Shahbazyan has also been finished by KO twice in his career, including a first-round stoppage at the hands of Ryan Loder, proving his chin is not untouchable. Chokheli has seven wins in under a minute, if Leon is even slightly hesitant, this fight could end in seconds.
With a year-plus of inactivity and his UFC debut jitters in play, Chokheli’s ferocious pressure and first-round finishing ability give him a very real path to a statement victory on fight night.
Final Leom Shahbazyan-Levan Chokheli Prediction & Pick
Levan Chokheli walks into his UFC debut with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove, and that dangerous energy makes him a threat from the opening bell. Leon Shahbazyan will look to drag this fight to the mat early, but getting past Chokheli’s explosive striking without eating a clean shot is easier said than done.
Chokheli’s first-round finishing rate is elite, and the moment Shahbazyan commits to a telegraphed takedown attempt, the Georgian slugger will be ready to time it with a counter that could end the night instantly. Leon’s chin has been tested before, and Chokheli carries the kind of pop that can turn the lights out on any fighter in the division.
Expect Chokheli to pressure early, cut off the cage, and unleash his power boxing to keep Leon on the back foot. The size disadvantage won’t matter if Shahbazyan is too rattled to shoot.
Final Leon Shahbazyan-Levan Chokheli Prediction & Pick: Levan Chokheli (-375), Under 1.5 Rounds (-200)
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